Jeff, I would love to have a 20-megapixel camera. If the noise level is low. If the images produced look like pictures. If the camera requires reasonable post-processing. If ... If .... If ......
Fact is, there are many very good cameras out there already. But lots of publications, esp. books and magazines, need pictures that big to keep the quality of their product at a very high level.
So, yeah. Given that it's in a useful, practical body and gives me otherwise superb images, I'll take the megapixels.
Every few years, there's technology that allows for the doubling of data density. That's about what you're looking at.
The chip would be just fine. Housing it in a body that appeals to pros would be the trick.
After all, pros and amateurs used the same size (and in many cases the same emulsion) film in their 35mm cameras, whether they were Nikons, Canons, Minoltas or Leicas. And the same film was used in plastic point-and-shoot cameras.
It wouldn't be the first time that a cheap camera and an expensive one shared the medium.
Lenses do matter, but I read somewhere that digital cameras are already capable of capturing more than the lenses can resolve.
That may be true, but the process of getting an image transferred to paper becomes more transparent as the number of pixels gets greater, so you'll see something more like the lens's true ability with the bigger, better, badder cameras.
pc photo's predictions have been as accurate as the tabloids
Is it possible to have consumer 10mp p&s in the next 18 months across the board? yes, if not sooner
is it possible for p&s to break 20mp in 18 months? no
is it possible to break 20mp for pro dslrs in 18 months? probable, not likely
I ripped the Mamiya rep a new one the other day for failing to release the ZD @22mp for over 2 years now and they said the camera actually has been around for 5 in various forms, but never in mass production because the manufacturers of the sensors were backlogged pumping out high volume consumer pieces.
apple made a huge move buying up all the flash memory production that was intended for ipod like devices therefore ensuring that even if someone could make a better and cheaper product, they would never be able to out sell them because stock of memory was spoken for. similar to the sensor market.
so to recap, to break 20mp it is going to be expensive for everyone involved, and they'd have to bump the el cheapo magnifico consumer cameras as well which provide a better profit margin. they know a sub 1k dslr is not a good idea either.
mcg I know, I just bought a $950 one for my new girlfriend to use up at brooks institute, but build quality is suspect.
selling well is not performing well. what i meant to say was not practical instead of probable. go to any canon or nikon repair facility, and they have so many of these cheap cams that many are rethinking their manufacturing processes. my incomplete thought on that post, i get distracted easily in this unbearable heat.
there will always in any product be innovations that get rushed to market to beat the band, especially at a price point that show gremlins. that makes them take pause and rethink everything. i learned never buy the first year a car/camera/tv/anything with batteries comes out, there is never enough time for the bugs to be worked out with real world use and experience. i am thinking practical more than manufacturing ability.
example: i had a great sony 62" dlp 'grand wega' the day it came out with all the bells and whistles. when it started acting up, i asked for a repair guy to look at it. the response from the sony repair tech was "this tv is crap, sorry but it was rushed to market to be out there and not lose marketshare, but we have about 20 of these in the LA area alone right now with this exact problem waiting over 2 months for parts that will never arrive. wait and see in a year when they release the replacement and tell you it is 'brand new technology', that is because they f'd up on this one. sucks to be you, we can't fix it. lucky for you it was not that expensive." true I paid $4400 when other brands in that size were going for $6000.
car: first year of the bentley continenltal gt (not my car, it's a rental from a friend's company), there was this neato feature on the car that detected when you were in traffic and at a stop that would engage the parking bake automatically. the braking system was to be revolutionary too. well while driving away from a popular club in ny one night, i discovered the feature did not always work well and that sometimes it turns on the brakes while moving or sometimes never, thus making me look bad with a car lod of drunken friends, and making nypd give me a field sobriety test as a socialite friend of mine laughed her ass off shouting to me: "oh, that's hot" as a matter of fact she had the same car in the same color but never drove it enough to get to this problem.
one of my friends reads every magazine article and all the factory nomenclature about everything. he can tell you that this lense consumes 4ohms more than the other, and that the glass being equal, blah... blah... blah... he thinks he is smarter because he reads the articles, well he is more educated, "you can't dispute the facts". He also buys what he reads of the new stuff to be the best and for whatever price point he can handle, but every damned time, his 'new technology' box melts down. don't get me started on our NY trip when the short lived rebel (or some other canon stinker) had just come out and he mated a lense to body that should have operated at 40 degrees started beeping and doing weird sh!t.
Tim, that goes back to my original post in this thread. The question of whether there's enough quality built in at a given price point.
Also, some manufacturers take a lot of heat for coming to market late with a product. My Fuji S2 was delayed several times, but the camera has proved to be a joy to use, even if it is slower than some others out there. The pictures it takes are on a par with most anything Nikon or Canon makes today.
Nikon, though, rushed the D200 to market and had to address banding issues. Canon rushed several new models and has faced quality control problems.
The fact that consumers accept and even expect to go through this now shows how crazy we are as a culture.
But the original poster's contention that 20mp cameras can and will be made soon is probably pretty close to reality, like it or not.
My only concern is whether it's just a numbers game, or if the images will actually be better. All things being equal (and they seldom are), this is one arena where bigger IS better. And it makes sense in a developing technology not to spend any more than you have to, since that 12 or 16 megapixel camera is going to be out of date in a year or two.
True, and not all pixels are created equal. That S2 may not be the newest or have the most pixels, but it still can outperform many new bodies.
I know that the 5D is having some issues at the moment too. Almost bought one for my assistant at Samy's lastweek. Canon had to make that camera out of consumer obligations.
It was like in computer processors. Everyone knew a gigahertz cpu was eventually going to happen, when Intel made the first offerings they were already late to the market but the competition had made several fatal flaws in regards to working and operating conditions, this allowed them the extra time to rebuild the architecture and vcome back to beat them, but not on the 1997 deadline everyone expected.
Technology has become part of the zeitgeist. There is a sense of entitlement about consumers (esp here in the US) that there will be better, and we know that what we buy will be useless in a few years but we have to have what is new even if it is unproven.
why did god create w.a.s.p.'s? someone has to pay retail
I got the shaft from Kodak directly. I got the v570, which was revolutionary a few months ago, even got another in an Oscar gift bag, just about 2 weeks before it came on the market, well guess what, a month after that the v610 comes out with 2 more mega pixels, thus making my new cool toy crap. They did the same with my Easyshare one. Gave it to me for a magazine article on cool new gadgets at the same time they were producing its predecessor.
Tim, I have a wall of CDs and drawers full of DVDs that "suck," according to your way of seeing things. We got the early versions for review purposes. The final versions included lots of cool graphics and such.
But guess what? I like a bunch of the CDs, so I don't care if they don't have the great packaging. they still sound fine.
Similarly, the photos taken by those Kodaks are still just as good as they were when they were "cool."
You're right about the Fuji. During the newspaper strike here, I was allowed to take pictures. The amount of editing needed on my Fuji files was about half that we do to the Canon pictures.
And prints from the thing look remarkably like prints from professional Fuji film. Think maybe they reverse-engineered everything to recreate their film "look" in digital? Certainly seems that way.
Sorry you feel frustrated with the onslaught of technology, which isn't exactly perfected when we get to "beta test it" for the manufacturers. But that's the way it is.